The United States is facing a new energy crisis — one that could make the climate crisis even worse.

After more than 30 years of falling or flat demand for electricity, electric utilities are forecasting the nation will need the equivalent of about 34 new nuclear plants, or 38 gigawatts, over the next five years to supply power for data centers, electrification and new industry according to filings made to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and compiled by Grid Strategies.

Since those reports, several utilities have further increased their near-term forecasts. 

And those estimates don’t necessarily include the growth of hard-to-track, but energy-hogging cryptocurrency or cannabis farming, which are estimated to be using up to 2.3% and 1%, respectively, of the nation’s electricity. Energy demand in these industries has skyrocketed as the popularity of cryptocurrency and as legalization of marijuana have spread. 

The utilities “were either just caught unaware or not believing what they were hearing,” said Rob Gramlich, president of Grid Strategies, which provided a cumulative look of the demand in December.  

In response to this demand, which seems to have power providers in the United States flat-footed, many utilities want to build new power plants to burn methane, a fossil fuel also known as natural gas, or to delay closing their coal plants. 

“I can’t recall the last time I was so concerned about the U.S. energy trajectory, as major utilities maneuver for mass gas capacity expansion in the face of load growth. Unless course is changed … (greenhouse gas) goals are effectively dead,” Tyler Norris, a doctoral fellow at Duke University, said in a recent tweet.

The issue is also a global one, as a recent International Energy Agency report says electricity for data centers, including for AI and cryptocurrency, could double by 2026.  

At the same time, there hasn’t been enough construction of enough new transmission to bring renewables such as solar and wind to the grid. 

“We see (the gas buildout) as a huge threat — we are at a moment where we need to be phasing out fossil fuels and not locking it in for decades longer,” said Gudrun Thompson, energy program leader for the Southern Environmental Law Center. 

2022 projections ‘were so off’

Norris said in 2022 he pointed out in hearings on Duke Energy’s carbon plan that the company seemed to be “low-balling” the need for more electricity, including for the growing amount of electric vehicles. At about the same time, Georgia Power told regulators it only needed the equivalent of one more mid-sized power plant to meet growth for the rest of the decade after its two new nuclear units at Vogtle came online. 

But late last year, Georgia Power said it will need 17 times more electricity — the equivalent of four new nuclear units — than what it had forecast just 18 months earlier because of new data centers and manufacturing in this state. 

One Georgia Public Service Commissioner, known for backing Georgia Power, questioned whether the company should have seen that growth coming ahead of time.  

“Talk with me about why I should have any confidence whatsoever in these projections when the 2022 projections were so off,” a heated Tricia Pridemore asked in a PSC hearing.

Economic development interests in the state call the demand a measure of success. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has aggressively recruited new industry to the state, and its economic development arm and Georgia Power tout low electricity prices there as a way to attract that industry. 

The same is true in Texas, where data mining centers have requested the equivalent of roughly 41 new nuclear power plants to power their energy-intensive computer processes to find the cryptocurrency. 

Virginia cools on data centers

In Virginia, data centers are no longer as welcome as they once were. Dominion has threatened to turn away new centers, saying it can’t meet the power demand. 

The utility said in 2023 that demand for electricity from those centers would increase 376% by 2038. Even if that demand is tempered, Dominion still expects overall demand for power to grow by 85% over the next 15 years as consumers shift to electric appliances, heating and cooling units and vehicles.

The Tennessee Valley Authority is also a hotspot for new data centers, with 65% of its new load growth since 2019 coming from data centers. TVA has contracts from additional centers not yet online that will increase its load another 40% to 50%. The quasi-public utility has proposed or is building eight new natural gas plants to fill the demand. 

“The timeframe that they can get online has been aggressive on their part,” said Lori Stenger, TVA’s director of enterprise, forecasting and financial planning. 

This underscores one point made by observers: Data centers and data miners aren’t just going to places where power is cheap, but where they can get power the fastest. In fact, some crypto miners are purchasing coal plants to provide electricity for their operations.

Utilities say they can’t meet the skyrocketing growth with wind, solar and other renewable energy, but a large group of businesses including Google and Microsoft, beg to differ. The 400-member Clean Energy Buyers Association said fossil fuels are not aligned with their goals.

“Georgia Power’s proposals to add more fossil fuel resources into its resource mix in this docket send the wrong message to the business community and large customers evaluating Georgia as a place to do business,” said Priya Barua, CEBA’s director of market and policy innovation, in written testimony over Georgia Power’s request to add more capacity. 

Data on crypto energy use lacking

Despite the utility’s forecasts, it’s still unclear exactly how much power is needed. 

Jeremy Fisher, a principal advisor for climate and energy with the Sierra Club, said while data centers in Northern Virginia are using roughly the equivalent of three nuclear plants worth of energy, the centers themselves are building almost four times that much in backup diesel generation around their centers, according to a review of permitting data. The backup power could be an indication those centers are preparing for future growth, Fisher said.

“There’s such little data, it’s frustrating,” said Mandy DeRoche, a lawyer at Earthjustice who has been tracking data centers.

That lack of clarity around the nation’s electricity use — no single agency has a full picture of how much is needed or used  — was in the spotlight this year after  the federal Energy Information Administration sent an emergency request to cryptocurrency miners requiring them to share how much electricity they use. 

Texas miners sued to stop the request, and the EIA has agreed to go through a more formal process that will take longer to gather that data. 

At least one publicly traded Bitcoin miner, Riot, which sued the EIA to stop the data collection, highlighted the risk of such data becoming public in its annual report to the Securities and Exchange Commission last year.

“It is possible that mandatory surveys such as this will be used by the EIA to generate negative reports regarding the Bitcoin mining industry’s use of power and other resources, which could spur additional negative public sentiment and adverse legislative and regulatory action against us or the Bitcoin mining industry as a whole.”

Floodlight is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates the powerful interests stalling climate action.

Bitcoin, data centers fuel energy spike, risking climate goals  is an article from Energy News Network, a nonprofit news service covering the clean energy transition. If you would like to support us please make a donation.

CLIMATE: Climate change is a major topic at the annual White House Tribal Nations Summit, as the Biden administration announces new agreements to work with tribes on land and water management. (ICT News, Associated Press)

OIL & GAS: 

• An Oregon county urges state regulators to deny an air quality permit that would allow a company to continue storing crude oil at its Portland terminal. (Oregonian) 
• A federal appeals court rejects developers’ bid to rehear a proposed Utah oil railway case, sending the project back to the drawing board. (Vail Daily)  
• The federal Bureau of Land Management seeks public input on proposed restrictions on oil and gas development in wildlife corridors and big game habitat in Colorado. (Grand Junction Sentinel)
• An abandoned oil well in northwestern Colorado spews a stinky, yellowish substance after a plug installed in 1993 fails. (9 News)
• Republican U.S. lawmakers advance a bill that would block a proposed rule raising minimum reclamation bonds for oil and gas operations on federal land. (Common Dreams)

ELECTRIFICATION: Mexican restaurants in California consider bucking tradition by switching from gas to electric stoves for health and environmental reasons. (Sacramento Bee)

SOLAR: A new southern California sports arena plans to install a 797 kW solar array with large-scale battery storage. (Solar Power World)

WIND: A Washington utility proposes a 248 MW wind facility in Montana to replace some of the generation lost when it exits a coal plant in 2025. (Seattle Times)

CARBON CAPTURE: Environmentalists push back on a proposal to bury captured carbon dioxide under U.S. Forest Service lands, saying it could be unsafe and perpetuates fossil fuel burning. (Floodlight)

TRANSPORTATION: 

• Colorado Gov. Jared Polis calls for more funding — and major reforms — for public transportation agencies, along with affordable transit-oriented housing development. (CPR)
• A proposed passenger rail line along Colorado’s urban Front Range receives $500,000 in federal funding. (KOAA)

ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Rural California school districts push back on state rules requiring new buses to be electric, saying the vehicles are impractical for their routes and terrain. (Los Angeles Times) 

UTILITIES: 

• Colorado regulators consider delaying a portion of Xcel Energy’s proposed generation and transmission buildout to mitigate impacts on customers’ utility bills. (Colorado Sun)

GRID: 

• The Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation and Portland General Electric launch a transmission line expansion project in Oregon. (KTVZ)
• Xcel Energy proposes bringing a 10-15 MW Colorado virtual power plant online in 2025, a year later than regulators requested. (Utility Dive)

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POLITICS: While the 2024 election will be pivotal for U.S. action on climate change, it was largely reproductive rights that helped Democrats exceed expectations this year, including in Ohio where voters passed a constitutional amendment preserving abortion access by a significant margin. (Financial Times, New York Times)

MAINE: 

• Voters rejected a measure that would have created a consumer-owned utility, after a campaign in which proponents were outspent 40 to 1. (Maine Morning Star)
• Inspired by controversy over a proposed power line to import Canadian hydropower, voters approved a measure that prohibits foreign companies from spending money to influence referendums. (Maine Public)
• A related measure that requires a statewide referendum for utilities to take on more than $1 billion in debt also passed. (Fox23)

TEXAS: Voters approved a state energy fund to provide low interest loans for new generation; language in the bill essentially restricts this to natural gas-fired power plants. (Texas Tribune)

VIRGINIA: In the first election under a new electoral map, Democrats now control both houses of the legislature; advocates had raised concerns that Republican majorities would have imperiled the state’s clean energy standard and other policies. (E&E News)

NEW JERSEY: In another state where ambitious clean energy policies were at risk, Democrats expanded control of the legislature in an election in which all 120 seats were up for grabs. (New Jersey Monitor, E&E News)

KENTUCKY: Voters re-elected Democratic Gov. Andy Bashear, who while promoting an “all of the above” approach to energy helped land billions in clean energy manufacturing investments; Bashear’s opponent had pledged more aggressive support for fossil fuels. (E&E News)

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What the 2023 results mean for climate is an article from Energy News Network, a nonprofit news service covering the clean energy transition. If you would like to support us please make a donation.

ALSO:

• Alaska residents and advocates push back on an energy security task force’s recommendations, saying they are more of a proposed liquefied natural gas export project sales pitch than a clean energy transition blueprint. (KUAC) 
• California advocates push back on ExxonMobil’s proposal to restart an oil pipeline that spilled 123,000 gallons of crude in 2015, saying it would facilitate the reopening of a polluting processing facility. (KEYT)
• ConocoPhillips proposes a seismic survey at its controversial Willow drilling project in Alaska, stoking fears the company is planning to expand the development. (Inside Climate News)

NUCLEAR: A petroleum executive proposes using small modular nuclear reactors to power the Permian Basin oil and gas fields as the industry electrifies.  (Midland Reporter-Telegram)

UTILITIES: 

• A northern Colorado power authority’s board votes to deploy a new natural gas turbine, battery storage and virtual power plants to help it become carbon-free by 2030. (Coloradoan)    
• Southern California Edison completes seismic mitigation work on bulk power transmission substations near the San Andreas Fault. (news release)

CLIMATE: 

• Preliminary estimates find California carbon emissions increased last year, setting the state further behind in achieving its 2030 climate goals. (Fresno Bee)
• A Colorado school district purchases five diesel buses for mountainous routes even though it plans to reach carbon-neutrality by 2050. (Denver Gazette)  

GRID: Southern California utilities warn customers of possible public safety power outages this week as intense Santa Ana winds elevate wildfire hazard. (Fox 11)

CLEAN ENERGY: Five Colorado rural communities receive $500,000 in federal funding to develop clean energy demonstration projects. (news release)

BIOFUELS: Pacific Gas & Electric plans to replace some natural gas with biofuels made from trees it cuts as part of its wildlife mitigation programs. (news release)

CARBON CAPTURE: The Biden administration awards about $14 million to marine carbon removal research and development projects in Colorado, Washington and Utah. (news release)

ELECTRIC VEHICLES: 

• Albuquerque, New Mexico, considers requiring electric vehicle charging infrastructure at new developments and construction. (KOB 4)
• An auto dealers association finds electric vehicles accounted for 17% of Colorado new car sales so far this year, a 5.5% increase from last year. (Colorado Times-Recorder)
• A California public high school integrates electric vehicle repair classes into its auto shop curriculum. (CBS Bay Area)
• California receives $40.5 million in federal funding to build 270 electric vehicle fast chargers at 26 sites along highways. (news release)
• An Arizona fire and rescue department adds an electric pumper truck to its fleet. (3TV/CBS 5)

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Colorado regulators order oil and gas operator to post $133 million bond is an article from Energy News Network, a nonprofit news service covering the clean energy transition. If you would like to support us please make a donation.

ALSO:
• The U.S. Interior Department is set to auction 958,000 acres of oil and gas leases next month in the Cook Inlet in Alaska after canceling a similar sale in May due to lack of industry interest. (Bloomberg)
• The first federal oil and gas lease sale in Utah under the Biden administration is slated for an area that has seen scant drilling in the past. (Salt Lake Tribune)   
• New Mexico archaeologists say oil and gas drilling in the Chaco Canyon region threatens hard-to-identify ancient agricultural fields. (NM Political Report)
• Permian Basin potash mining companies call for stricter regulations on oil and gas operations after a 2018 drilling accident blew a crater out of a defunct mine nearby. (Wall Street Journal, subscription)

TRANSPORTATION:
• California petroleum refining companies reject an invitation to testify at a state energy commission hearing on high fuel prices. (KCRA)   
• A northern California transit agency converts all of its commuter trains to run on biodiesel. (Pleasanton Weekly)   

HYDROGEN: Firms propose a $180 million facility in Kern County, California, that would use a 75 MW solar power installation to produce green hydrogen transportation fuel. (Bakersfield Californian)

COAL: U.S. lawmakers hope to avert a looming national railroad workers’ strike that could halt coal shipments out of the Powder River Basin. (New York Times)

UTILITIES: New Mexico’s Supreme Court rejects social justice groups’ challenge of a voter-approved measure turning the elected utility regulatory board into a governor-appointed one. (Associated Press) 

SOLAR:
• Alaska’s energy authority loans a developer $4.9 million to construct what would be the state’s largest solar power facility at 8.5 MW. (Alaska Public Media)
• Alaska consumer interest groups urge state lawmakers to pass legislation allowing utilities to establish and construct community solar programs and facilities. (Anchorage Daily News)
• Washington state regulators grant a developer’s request to postpone a public hearing on two controversial 80 MW solar facilities proposed for private land in Yakima County. (Yakima Herald-Republic)       

ELECTRIFICATION: An Oregon city’s proposal to ban natural gas hookups in new construction draws fierce public reaction both favoring and opposing it. (Register-Guard)

COMMENTARY: A Colorado columnist says Western states’ midterm results show voters support reasonable oil and gas drilling regulations. (High Country News)

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Environmentalists: Federal methane limits fall short on flaring is an article from Energy News Network, a nonprofit news service covering the clean energy transition. If you would like to support us please make a donation.